Victorian state election · Legislative Assembly · 88 seats

Victoria 2026: seat-by-seat forecast

Seats won

Median, 50% and 80% ranges across simulations. 45 seats for a majority.

Seat count distribution

Share of simulations ending with each seat total. Dashed line: majority (45).

Seat map

Colour = most likely winner; stronger shade = more certain (under 60%, 60–80%, 80–95%, 95%+). Hover or tap a seat for details.

Every seat

Win probability by party. Click a column to sort, a row to show the seat on the map. "Held" is the 2022 result (Prahran after its 2025 by-election).

Model vs Kalshi

Kalshi: who wins the election

Daily last trade, from the project's six-hourly snapshots.

Poll average

Recent polls

Primary vote (%). "Oth" is independents and others. Source: Wikipedia's polling page.

How it works, and how it did before