The road to 2028
Who could lead each party, who has announced, and how the nomination markets price the field.
US election day. Parties choose their presidential nominees before the general election.
Election overviewA majority of the 538 electoral votes elects the president. National vote share alone does not decide the winner.
How the Electoral College worksThe nomination markets
Prices for selected people on our watchlist, including those who have declined or have no current plans. A traded contract does not establish a candidacy.
Bars use Polymarket bid/ask midpoints, or the captured price when a two-sided quote is unavailable. Kalshi appears alongside. These are market observations, not polling percentages or our own forecast. Prices are not renormalized.
Democratic nomination
Republican nomination
Candidate watch
Declared = campaign announcement found. Considering = reported interest or preparations. Mentioned = discussed as a prospect. Declined / no current plans reflect the cited source and can change. Inclusion is not a viability ranking or ballot-access determination.
| Candidate | Status | Polymarket | Kalshi | Evidence |
|---|
Which party wins the presidency?
These contracts concern the general election, separately from who wins a nomination. We have not released a 2028 election model or state projections.
What comes next
Update this watchlist as campaigns declare, explore or withdraw. FEC filings and ballot access are separate milestones.
The parties select nominees through their own nomination processes. State-by-state dates will be added once checked against official schedules.
General election. The winning ticket is due to take office on 20 January 2029.
Sources & reading the numbers
Candidate evidence has its own review date. Market observations retain their capture time, bid, ask and contract link. Missing quotes mean unavailable in this captured set; they never mean zero probability. Quotes older than 24 hours at page build are labelled stale.
The watchlist is editorially selected and does not cover every registered filer or market name. Unreviewed market-only names are omitted. Prices may sum above or below 100% because of spreads, incomplete fields and different contract rules. No nomination polling average is presented.
FEC candidate filings · Ballotpedia candidate coverage · National Archives