Forecast dateSunday 27 September 2026
Midterm Watch 2026
Polymarket · Kalshi · US midterms, 3 November 2026

Midterm Watch 2026

Democrats control the Senate

Daily closing price on each platform since capture began. Hover for values.
PolymarketKalshi

Democrats control the House

Same question on both platforms.
PolymarketKalshi

Balance of power

Senate and House together. Polymarket lists four outcomes; Kalshi the four combinations for February 2027.

Democratic Senate seats, 120th Congress

Kalshi seat-count buckets, latest prices. Bars do not sum exactly to 100%.

Senate races

Kalshi party-to-win markets, sorted closest first. Polymarket shown where it lists the same race. Change is the Kalshi Democratic price over 30 days.
StateDemocratKalshi DPolymarket DRepublicanKalshi R30dTrend (Kalshi D)Volume

Governors

Kalshi party-to-win markets, closest first.
StateDemocratDRepublicanR30d

Democratic House seats, 120th Congress

Kalshi seat-count buckets, latest prices. 218 is a majority.